Do We Have Enough Fuel For The Future?

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One of the most compelling arguments for widespread adoption of renewable energy systems is the frightening idea that the world is going to run out of fossil fuels. While this is not an immediate concern, there is a strong movement to switch entirely to renewable sources by the middle of the century.

Concerns about fossil fuel usage didn't really exist before the 1970s. There was plenty to go around and, even though most people understood that the supply would run out one day, the prospect was a worry for a far-distant future. After the oil embargo of 1973, the US woke up to the reality that fossil fuels could run out. Admittedly the supply problem at that time was caused by political issues and there was plenty of oil to go around, but it forced people to stop and think about their energy use.

Forty years later, human civilization faces a different supply problem: we have reached (or have almost reached) peak production in oil and gas. In other words, it is very unlikely that we will ever produce more annually than we are already producing. Oil is the basic foundation for fuel prices: it's used in the production of all the others so when oil prices rise, all the others do, too.

Reaching peak production doesn't mean that we're almost out of reserves: experts estimate that there is still around 50% of the planet's entire oil reserve available. The problem comes from the world's rising demand for fuel, which is increasing at an alarming rate – faster than ever before, in fact.

Now put those two facts together: we're at maximum yearly output with an increasing demand for the resource. The only possible outcome of this situation is rising prices. Add the fact that, as we use more and more oil, it becomes harder to mine and you have even higher prices. With every year that passes, the situation worsens.

But oil isn't used to heat water: natural gas does that. The US has also reached peak production there but, unlike oil, there isn't a way to import more cheaply. That requires specialised tankers and handling facilities which cost a lot of money and take time to build... which means higher prices there, too.

The only real answer to the question of whether we have enough fuel for the future is obvious: a non-renewable supply of resources will eventually run out, no matter how little gets used every year. However, even taking a shorter-term view gives us an equally unpleasant answer: there is enough fuel for the near future... it will just cost a lot more than you want to pay for it.